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Forecast Accuracy

An analysis of the accuracy of the Treasury's macroeconomic and tax forecasts.

Summary

The Treasury has updated the analysis of its forecasting performance, last published in 2013.

The key findings are:

  • The accuracy of the Treasury's GDP growth and tax revenue forecasts has improved over the last three years.
  • The accuracy of the Treasury's CPI inflation forecasts has declined a little, through a period of unusually-low inflation.
  • When compared to other forecasters of the New Zealand economy, the Treasury's forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation are amongst the most accurate.
  • In each of the last six years, the Treasury has achieved its target of having one-year-ahead Budget tax revenue forecast errors of less than ±3%.

The full report can be found on the Treasury website at Regular Reviews - Treasury's Forecasting Performance.

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