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["Data and Charts - Supplementary Information - Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025"]
["Published 16 December 2025"]
[]
["Published by the New Zealand Treasury at:"]
["https://treasury.govt.nz/publications/efu/supplementary-information-half-year-economic-and-fiscal-update-2025"]
["http://www.budget.govt.nz/budget/forecasts/hyefu2025.htm"]
[]
["This spreadsheet contains the tables, charts and the data used to generate the charts that appear in the supplementary information of the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2025."]
[]
["Crown copyright ©"]
[]
[]
["This copyright work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. In essence, you are free to copy, distribute and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to the Crown and abide by the other licence terms."]
["To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Please note that no departmental or governmental emblem, logo or Coat of Arms may be used in any way which infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981 or would infringe such provision if the relevant use occurred within New Zealand. Attribution to the Crown should be in written form and not by reproduction of any such emblem, logo or Coat of Arms."]

{"sheet":"Data 1","index":2,"n_rows":11,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":11,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
[null,"Figure 1 - Core Crown tax revenue"]
[null,"Source: the Treasury"]
[]
[]
[null,"Net other individuals' tax: +9.7%",0.83169400000000138]
[null,"GST: +2.6%",0.73542700000000327]
[null,"Corporate tax: +0.9%",0.15723099999999976]
[null,"Source deductions: -1.4%",-0.75283699999999953]
[null,"Other taxes: -1.5%",-0.18721100000000115]
[null,"Total tax: +0.6%",0.78430400000000378]

{"sheet":"Data 2","index":4,"n_rows":13,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":13,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
[null,"Figure 2 - Tax revenue forecast errors"]
[null,"Source: the Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,"Mean error (ME)","Low","confidence interval width"]
[null,42,-2.5705376489714622,-5.4353377057089212,5.7296001134749179]
[null,36,-2.511365078317966,-5.1737096351020408,5.3246891135681498]
[null,30,-1.9181890666367025,-4.2662052736890113,4.6960324141046179]
[null,24,-2.2697543862622584,-4.7850596211892356,5.0306104698539542]
[null,18,-1.5007240511467994,-3.5396797044436603,4.0779113065937223]
[null,12,-1.881082183140123,-3.9360524969227209,4.1099406275651953]
[null,6,-0.88914294442770103,-1.9466740244298504,2.1150621600042987]
[null,0,-0.58435056577693478,-1.075829773284082,0.98295841501429448]

{"sheet":"Data 3","index":6,"n_rows":14,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":14,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
[null,"Figure 3 - Real GDP  forecast errors"]
[null,"Source: the Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,"Mean error (ME)","Low","confidence interval width"]
[null,null,"Percentage points","Percentage points","Percentage points"]
[null,42,-0.61571261798237675,-1.3361548175690852,1.4408843991734168]
[null,36,-0.72517507483777377,-1.5600517017194693,1.6697532537633908]
[null,30,-0.60465212921003231,-1.2253043576134339,1.2413044568068035]
[null,24,-0.63354077210376436,-1.3460176200375535,1.4249536958675781]
[null,18,-0.94271872782783572,-1.6345067387642951,1.3835760218729189]
[null,12,-0.7535376835496338,-1.4156254970463222,1.3241756269933767]
[null,6,1.5213037973098184E-2,-0.61982958528254561,1.2700852465112875]
[null,0,-3.8488831817754268E-2,-0.32989490698570173,0.58281215033589495]

{"sheet":"Data 4","index":8,"n_rows":9,"n_cols":22,"rows_kept":9,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Figure 4 - OBEGAL, CAB, and structural balance"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,null,"2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029",2030]
[null,null,null,"Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast"]
[null,"OBEGAL","% Nominal Potential GDP",-4.2355303236926121,-1.9820341669641515,-1.1624211880923596,0.1671458989905841,0.70557815212511588,1.4784901305605982,1.8863904801023981,2.424129700238693,-7.3097598307820881,-1.3514995420906157,-2.7153926139415563,-2.4006516272255141,-3.0776612647574026,-3.1316851998570088,-3.6350741075135313,-2.6809319361242414,-1.5240470650422298,-0.61725295909136113,-1.0882653974590092E-2]
[null,"Cyclically-adjusted balance","% Nominal Potential GDP",-3.6734022678953302,-1.3481160681050404,-0.5405093234013898,0.5088543016547824,0.82010756474584801,1.4188437917534249,1.5924037036305565,1.8511610455645759,-7.6308786633518126,-2.1684237755256781,-4.0723892915981983,-3.3933638112831614,-3.2680902512835002,-2.141127926299081,-2.5831751715428117,-2.1914175030828869,-1.2341205569346185,-0.48688455612076453,-2.7083187328669996E-3]
[null,"Structural Balance","% Nominal Potential GDP",-2.8024598853178446,-1.2286731391488863,-0.40526688681391332,0.48664892860047781,1.0463087527837742,1.4188437917534249,1.5924037036305565,1.8511610455645759,-3.500279438680288,-0.45374726109041813,0.40268561216101367,-2.4284246090690518,-2.9728323014167684,-2.0541803500324725,-2.5302163019319366,-2.1214805880850496,-1.1652039162160532,-0.42352026225303446,1.9356624955746898E-2]
[null,"One-off adjustments","% Nominal Potential GDP",-0.87094238257748557,-0.11944292895615417,-0.13524243658747651,2.2205373054304603E-2,-0.22620118803792622,0,0,0,-4.1305992246715251,-1.7146765144352598,-4.4750749037592117,-0.96493920221410978,-0.29525794986673159,-8.6947576266608803E-2,-5.2958869610875148E-2,-6.9936914997837177E-2,-6.8916640718565292E-2,-6.3364293867730098E-2,-2.2064943688613899E-2]

{"sheet":"Data 5","index":10,"n_rows":9,"n_cols":22,"rows_kept":9,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[null,"Figure 5 - OBEGALx, CAB, and structural balance"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,null,"2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029",2030]
[null,null,null,"Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast"]
[null,"OBEGALx","% Nominal Potential GDP",-4.934576183392962,-2.6295405713054079,-1.5901357651527535,0.13444344049242637,0.81733001674351213,1.6943228013772595,2.0254666123542555,2.7749090013231723,-6.6265602629573319,-0.75844020355479946,-2.4276299254142648,-1.8295882981575775,-2.1005385308632869,-2.085698308872062,-2.9734880440107139,-2.139377491114316,-1.0130639953376503,-0.17903746050992522,0.41698702479304367]
[null,"Cyclically-adjusted Balance","% Nominal Potential GDP",-4.3724481275956801,-1.995622472446297,-0.96822390046178342,0.47615184315662462,0.93185942936424415,1.6346764625700863,1.7314798358824137,2.2019403466490548,-6.9476790955270564,-1.5753644369898618,-3.7846266030709073,-2.8223004822152244,-2.2909675173893849,-1.0951410353141346,-1.9215891080399945,-1.649863058072961,-0.72313748723003923,-4.866905753932859E-2,0.42516136003476679]
[null,"Structural Balance","% Nominal Potential GDP",-3.501505745018195,-1.8761795434901429,-0.83298146387430683,0.45394647010232003,1.1580606174021706,1.6346764625700863,1.7314798358824137,2.2019403466490548,-2.8170798708555318,0.13931207744539809,0.69044830068830476,-1.857361280001115,-1.9957095675226528,-1.0081934590475254,-1.8686302384291194,-1.5799261430751235,-0.65422084651147394,1.4695236328401574E-2,0.44722630372338068]
[null,"One-off adjustments","% Nominal Potential GDP",-0.87094238257748557,-0.11944292895615417,-0.13524243658747651,2.2205373054304603E-2,-0.22620118803792622,0,0,0,-4.1305992246715251,-1.7146765144352598,-4.4750749037592117,-0.96493920221410978,-0.29525794986673159,-8.6947576266608803E-2,-5.2958869610875148E-2,-6.9936914997837177E-2,-6.8916640718565292E-2,-6.3364293867730098E-2,-2.2064943688613899E-2]

{"sheet":"Data 6","index":12,"n_rows":9,"n_cols":22,"rows_kept":9,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[2,3,2,21]]}
[null,"Figure 6 - Total fiscal impulse and fiscal balance"]
[null,"Source: The Treasury"]
[]
[null,null,null,"2012","2013","2014","2015","2016","2017","2018","2019","2020","2021","2022","2023","2024","2025","2026","2027","2028","2029",2030]
[null,null,null,"Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Actual","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast","Forecast"]
[null,"Fiscal Balance (HYEFU 2025)","% Nominal Potential GDP",-3.0405056966507682,-1.4664403537486446,-0.81880749359257832,0.41310431922767282,0.79741853192731516,1.7722776378458589,1.503176082995727,0.84300032141173176,-5.6754703773544231,-1.4383393152995083,-3.4615581831218636,-2.1902197462872626,-3.4676962888969549,-3.1173412613476801,-4.4342580511932805,-3.9874346155076998,-2.1701448992099248,-1.2242752061535838,-0.36075997925766157]
[null,"Total Fiscal Impulse (HYEFU 2025)","% Nominal Potential GDP",-0.30647706812551129,-1.5740653429021236,-0.64763286015606625,-1.2319118128202511,-0.38431421269964228,-0.97485910591854386,0.26910155485013187,0.66017576158399538,6.5184706987661549,-4.2371310620549147,2.0232188678223553,-1.271338436834601,1.2774765426096926,-0.35035502754927478,1.3169167898456007,-0.44682343568558103,-1.817289716297775,-0.94586969305634105,-0.86351522689592231]
[null,"Fiscal Balance (BEFU 2025)","% Nominal Potential GDP",-3.0400918123310485,-1.4661026308204916,-0.81854228503106441,0.41293926875846487,0.7970828094762662,1.7708279706722188,1.5014870894756287,0.84247168132819927,-5.6734019431924567,-1.4381786192359132,-3.4605100176638954,-2.1887039713116732,-3.458261012626008,-3.9820265597131144,-4.1596236153098642,-3.1029380399954523,-1.7667063999824884,-0.90486108304207202]
[null,"Total Fiscal Impulse (BEFU 2025)","% Nominal Potential GDP",-0.30670295693955851,-1.5739891815105569,-0.64756034578942723,-1.2314815537895294,-0.38414354071780132,-0.97374516119595256,0.26934088119659022,0.65901540814742932,6.5158736245206557,-4.2352233239565438,2.0223313984279825,-1.2718060463522221,1.2695570413143347,0.52376554708710654,0.17759705559675029,-1.0566855753144124,-1.3362316400129641,-0.86184531694041622]