An analysis of the accuracy of the Treasury's macroeconomic and tax forecasts.
The Treasury has updated the analysis of its forecasting performance, last published in 2016.
The key findings are:
- The accuracy of the Treasury's GDP growth and tax revenue forecasts has improved over the last three years.
- The accuracy of the Treasury's CPI inflation forecasts has declined a little, through a period of unusually-low inflation.
- When compared to other forecasters of the New Zealand economy, the Treasury's forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation are amongst the most accurate.
- In each of the last six years, the Treasury has achieved its target of having one-year-ahead Budget tax revenue forecast errors of less than ±3%.
The full report can be found on the Treasury website at Regular Reviews - Treasury's Forecasting Performance.