Fiscal Strategy
Report 2026

Annex 1 — Fiscal forecasts

Table A1.1 — BEFU fiscal forecasts

Year ending 30 June 2025
Actual		 2026
Forecast		 2027
Forecast		 2028
Forecast		 2029
Forecast		 2030
Forecast
$billions
Core Crown tax revenue 121.7 124.8 133.0 142.2 151.6 159.7
Core Crown revenue 134.4 137.2 145.6 155.6 165.6 174.3
Total Crown revenue 169.8 172.0 184.1 195.7 207.5 217.7
Core Crown expenses 141.7 147.2 154.8 158.8 162.8 167.9
Total Crown expenses 183.5 186.8 198.0 202.8 207.7 214.2
OBEGALx (9.3) (11.9) (11.4) (4.3) 2.6 6.1
Operating balance (4.4) (4.1) (8.1) (0.6) 6.7 11.0
Net core Crown debt 182.2 191.8 216.5 232.4 241.4 246.1
Total borrowings 272.1 289.3 318.8 339.3 353.5 364.1
Gross debt 203.7 223.8 250.2 267.1 278.4 284.3
Net worth 189.1 185.3 189.8 189.5 196.4 207.3
Net worth attributable to the Crown 179.3 175.5 179.9 179.4 186.2 197.2
Core Crown residual cash (6.0) (9.3) (24.2) (15.6) (8.8) (4.5)
% of GDP
Core Crown tax revenue 28.0 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8
Core Crown revenue 30.9 30.4 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.4
Total Crown revenue 39.0 38.0 38.8 38.9 39.2 39.3
Core Crown expenses 32.6 32.6 32.6 31.5 30.7 30.3
Total Crown expenses 42.2 41.3 41.7 40.3 39.2 38.6
OBEGALx (2.1) (2.6) (2.4) (0.8) 0.5 1.1
Operating balance (1.0) (0.9) (1.7) (0.1) 1.3 2.0
Net core Crown debt 41.9 42.4 45.6 46.1 45.6 44.4
Total borrowings 62.6 64.0 67.1 67.4 66.7 65.7
Gross debt 46.8 49.5 52.7 53.0 52.5 51.3
Net worth 43.5 41.0 40.0 37.6 37.1 37.4
Net worth attributable to the Crown 41.2 38.8 37.9 35.6 35.1 35.6
Core Crown residual cash (1.4) (2.1) (5.1) (3.1) (1.7) (0.8)

Source: The Treasury